财通基金沈犁： 在景气与价值中找寻平衡

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategy of Shen Li, a fund manager at Caitong Fund, who has achieved consistent positive returns in the volatile A-share market since taking over the Caitong New Vision Mixed Fund in January 2021, with a return rate exceeding 66% as of September 18, 2023 [1] - Shen Li's investment approach focuses on a balance between growth and value, avoiding the constraints of traditional labels, and seeks resilient targets within growth and flexible spaces within value [1][2] Investment Strategy - Shen Li categorizes mainstream investment strategies into three types: left-side deep value, right-side thematic trends, and a middle-ground approach focused on cyclical and prosperity research, opting for a non-typical path that leans towards growth within value or value within growth [2] - His strategy emphasizes "dual avoidance," steering clear of excessive pursuit of short-term prosperity and mechanical reliance on static low valuations [2] - A two-layer screening mechanism is employed: a top-down approach requiring industry prosperity to remain stable, and a bottom-up focus on key factors such as profitability certainty, growth continuity, and risk-reward ratio [2] Market Outlook - Shen Li perceives the current market as being in a deepening recovery phase, with sentiment indicators returning to normal levels and moving towards optimism without reaching overheating [5] - He identifies several key sectors for investment, including AI, semiconductors, and high-quality manufacturing companies that have undergone value reassessment [5][6] - The AI sector is expected to attract significant capital inflows, with hardware being the main axis of the industry cycle, drawing parallels to the 2018 liquor industry [5] - The semiconductor industry is entering a second upward cycle, characterized by improved development quality compared to the previous cycle [5][6] - High-quality manufacturing companies that have established global production capabilities are seen as having new competitive barriers, with a focus on those with product and brand competitiveness [6] - In the consumer sector, the trend of price sensitivity is highlighted, with opportunities arising from structural recovery in consumption, particularly in high-value products [6]