Group 1 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end on October 15, and a quota system will be implemented, impacting global cobalt supply and demand balance [1][2] - DRC holds 55% of the world's cobalt reserves, with a projected production of 220,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of global output [2] - The introduction of the quota system is expected to lead to tighter cobalt supply, as the quota scale may not meet downstream demand in the next two years [1][3] Group 2 - China's refined cobalt production accounts for approximately 80% of the global market, with recent price increases observed in the spot market [3] - The current market sentiment is bullish, with many companies pausing quotes and awaiting clarity on the quota policy [3][4] - The DRC's export ban has led to a significant reduction in cobalt inventory, with some companies reporting a 35.09% increase in inventory levels [6] Group 3 - The new quota system allows for the export of over 18,000 tons of cobalt in the remaining months of this year, with future quotas set at 96,600 tons annually for 2026 and 2027 [7] - The goal of the new policy is to reduce global cobalt inventory to approximately one month's demand, contrasting with the typical three to four months of inventory held by major smelters [7][8] - The anticipated tight supply in the fourth quarter will depend on domestic and overseas inventory levels, with potential for speculative hoarding [7][8] Group 4 - Chinese companies are actively exploring new cobalt supply channels, including projects in Indonesia, which have shown significant production increases [9] - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly viable, with companies like Grinm Metal achieving over 10,000 tons of cobalt recovery last year [10] - The growth of cobalt recycling is expected to alleviate supply pressures as the industry approaches peak recovery rates in the coming years [10]
刚果（金）以配额制替代钴出口禁令 中企寻求多元供给迫在眉睫
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-09-22 18:23