周期掘金正当时 基金经理纵论攻守道与价值锚

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, have shown strong performance in 2023 due to supply-side constraints, expectations of global liquidity easing, and domestic "anti-involution" policies driving demand [7][8]. Factors Driving Cyclical Stock Performance - Domestic economic recovery and potential global monetary easing have positively impacted cyclical assets [8]. - Supply-side constraints and industrial cycle expectations have led to strong performance in non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [8]. - Strategic small metal varieties, such as rare earths, have seen optimistic market expectations due to policy and supply-side reductions [8]. - Traditional industries like coal, steel, and chemicals have benefited from the "anti-involution" policy, resulting in structural rebounds [8][11]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Despite significant price increases in non-ferrous metals, valuations remain reasonable, with some stocks still undervalued [12][13]. - The recovery in company earnings has provided a solid foundation for stock price increases, with overall valuations still within a reasonable range [12][13]. - The cyclical industry is in a recovery phase, with many companies experiencing high growth rates from a low base, but not yet at peak profitability [14][15]. Investment Strategy and Focus - The investment strategy is leaning towards a pro-cyclical approach, focusing on sectors with strong demand logic [17]. - Key sectors for investment include industrial metals, small metals, and precious metals, with traditional cyclical leaders also being prioritized [17]. - A balanced approach of defensive and offensive strategies is recommended, with a focus on stocks that have strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations [17][18]. Challenges Ahead - Potential challenges for the cyclical industry include demand-side risks, particularly in sectors like copper and aluminum, which are closely tied to economic expectations [19]. - The recovery pace of midstream industries like steel and chemicals may lag behind due to their dependence on the real estate market and overall demand [19].