Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-22 18:48Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by increased market activity and investor participation, leading to a positive outlook for the third quarter performance of securities firms [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity and Performance - As of September 22, 48 out of 50 brokerage stocks closed higher, with Guosheng Financial leading with a 7.49% increase [1]. - The trading volume in A-shares has notably increased, with 15 out of 16 trading days in September exceeding 2 trillion yuan, and a peak of 3.14 trillion yuan on September 18, marking the third-highest daily volume of the year [1]. - The active trading environment is expected to boost the brokerage firms' brokerage and proprietary trading business forecasts [1]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Growth Potential - The return on equity (ROE) for the brokerage sector is on an upward trend, as firms have passed the peak of high costs and are balancing cost reduction with long-term competitiveness [1][2]. - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the market, with the current high savings rate indicating room for a shift from savings to investments [2]. - The self-operated business of brokerages is expected to see enhanced elasticity, with the low-interest-rate environment making equity markets increasingly attractive [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Long-term Outlook - The brokerage sector's valuation remains at historically low levels, despite a positive performance in the equity market since the beginning of the year [3]. - There is a clear divergence between the improvement in the brokerage sector's fundamentals and its valuation, indicating strong potential for recovery [3]. - The overall outlook for the brokerage industry is positive, supported by increased market activity, favorable regulatory policies, and accelerated long-term capital inflows [3].