Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-22 20:15Core Viewpoint - The structure of dollar deposit interest rates among banks is diverging, reflecting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments [1][3] Group 1: Current Interest Rates - Some banks maintain dollar deposit interest rates at 3% or higher, despite the recent 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - For example, Jiangsu Bank offers a 3-month rate of 2.5%, a 6-month rate of 2.7%, and a 1-year rate of 3% for deposits starting at $5,000 [1] - Beijing Bank also reports a 1-year dollar deposit rate of 3%, indicating potential for future adjustments [2] Group 2: Divergence in Rate Structures - There is a noticeable difference in dollar deposit interest rate structures among banks; Jiangsu Bank has a positive correlation between term length and interest rate, while Guangfa Bank shows higher rates for shorter terms [2][3] - Guangfa Bank's rates vary by deposit amount, with a 6-month rate of 3.1% for amounts under $30,000, and 3.4% for amounts over $100,000 [2] Group 3: Expectations for Future Rate Changes - The dollar deposit interest rate structure may adjust as expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts increase, with a potential additional 50 basis points cut anticipated this year [1][3] - Market analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may lower rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, with some economists suggesting a total cut of up to 75 basis points if unemployment continues to rise [3]