Recession risks are awfully high, top economist says

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, impacting the housing market and mortgage rates [1][5] - Despite lower mortgage rates, housing affordability remains a significant issue due to high house prices and stagnant incomes [2][6] - Building permits are declining, indicating potential economic slowdown and increased recession risks [10][11] Housing Market - Current mortgage rates are around 6.4%, influenced by expectations of further Fed rate cuts [5] - Affordability issues persist, with high house prices and limited inventory affecting potential homebuyers [2][6] - Refinancing is not appealing for most homeowners unless mortgage rates drop into the 5% range [7][8] Economic Indicators - Building permits are a leading indicator of economic activity, and their decline suggests reduced home construction and economic activity [11][12] - The risk of recession is assessed at 40-45%, with building permits and job market stagnation contributing to this outlook [14][15] - The job market is currently stalled, with no net new job creation, particularly affecting younger workers [17][19] Federal Reserve and Policy Concerns - The Fed's interest rate cuts are a response to a weakening job market, with concerns about employment risks [16][20] - Tariffs and restrictive immigration policies are identified as root causes of economic troubles, impacting various industries [21][22] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining a stable economy and financial system [22][23]