美联储新任理事呼吁激进降息 其他官员持谨慎态度

Core Viewpoint - The newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's policies, but finds himself in the minority within the Fed [1]. Group 1: Milan's Position - Milan calls for a total interest rate cut of 150 basis points this year to bring the policy rate closer to his estimated neutral level of 2.5% [1]. - He argues that current short-term rates are approximately 2 percentage points above the neutral level, leading to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [1]. - Milan emphasizes that his stance is not panic-driven, stating that maintaining rates above neutral will accumulate economic risks [1]. Group 2: Diverging Views within the Fed - Other Fed officials express caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting that inflation remains above the 2% target [2]. - St. Louis Fed President Bullard indicates support for rate cuts only if the labor market worsens without sustained inflationary pressures [2]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester believes the current policy rate is only mildly restrictive and warns against rapid rate cuts that could lead to economic overheating [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is skeptical of Milan's aggressive stance, with RSM's Chief Economist questioning the characterization of current monetary policy as tight [3]. - Observations of loose financial conditions and a labor market near full employment contradict Milan's claims of a highly restrictive policy [3].