Orr: 12-17% Market Pullback Possible; Looking at REITs, Oil, DE & More

Market Overview - The recent market performance has seen record closes for major indices including the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, and Russell, a phenomenon not observed since 2021 [1] - A pullback in the market is anticipated as healthy corrections are necessary, despite recent upward trends [2][3] Economic Conditions - Current labor numbers are flat or declining, indicating potential stagflation characterized by high inflation and low employment opportunities [4][5] - Historical comparisons suggest stagflation is rare, with the 1970s being a notable period, but the current situation is described as unusual [6] Market Predictions - A potential market selloff is projected, with estimates ranging from a 12% to 17% decline, which is considered a healthy correction [7][8] - There is significant margin money available, approximately $7.2 trillion, which could support market recovery [8] Investment Strategies - The "buy the dip" mentality remains prevalent among retail traders, while institutions are taking profits [9] - Recommended sectors for investment include Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and oil companies, which are expected to perform well amid inflation [12][21] - Specific stocks mentioned as potential buys on dips include John Deere and Caterpillar, with a focus on agricultural technology and equipment [13][19] Government and Policy Impact - Concerns are raised regarding an impending budget crisis, which could negatively impact market stability [15][16] - Historical context indicates that government shutdowns create market uncertainty, which is generally unfavorable [17] Consumer Technology - Apple products, particularly the iPhone 17 Pro Max, are highlighted as attractive investments, reflecting a shift in consumer preference [25]