五人角逐、两大决定因素 谁会是日本下任首相

Core Points - The upcoming election for the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will take place on October 4, with five candidates competing for the position, which is expected to lead to the next Prime Minister of Japan [1][2] - The candidates have varying policy positions and strengths, and two main factors are likely to influence the election outcome [1][6] Candidate Overview - The five candidates are: - Shinjiro Koizumi: Current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, advocates for constitutional amendments and military enhancement, faces criticism for lack of experience [2][4] - Sanae Takaichi: Former Minister for Economic Security, proposes active fiscal policies and increased defense spending, has strong support from conservative factions but may be hindered by her extreme right stance [2][4] - Toshimitsu Motegi: Former Foreign Minister with extensive political experience, focuses on local revitalization and forming a new governing coalition, faces challenges in attracting younger voters [2][5] - Takahiro Kobayashi: Identifies as a "steady conservative," aims to boost Japan's technological capabilities, but has low recognition and experience [2][5] - Yoshihide Suga: Current Chief Cabinet Secretary, follows a moderate political approach and aims to continue the policies of previous leaders, but may struggle to gain support from conservative party members [2][5] Election Dynamics - The election will be influenced by internal party dynamics, particularly the role of influential party "bigwigs" who can sway votes despite the dissolution of many traditional factions [9][11] - The flow of votes from supporters of former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will also be a critical factor, as they may back candidates who align with Ishiba's policies [9][11] - The election is set against a backdrop of the LDP's recent losses in both houses of parliament, leading to a "minority governance" situation that poses significant challenges for the next leader [1][11]