美联储官员并不鸽？美债连续第四日下跌，今晚聚焦鲍威尔讲话

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields have declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, influenced by cautious signals from multiple Federal Reserve policymakers regarding interest rate decisions, leading to a cooling of market expectations for consecutive rate cuts this year [1][4][6] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities have generally increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 3.36 basis points to 3.601%, the 5-year yield up by 2.45 basis points to 3.701%, the 10-year yield increasing by 2.12 basis points to 4.147%, and the 30-year yield climbing by 2.07 basis points to 4.763% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest point since September 5, reflecting market reactions to economic data and Federal Reserve communications [4] - The two-year Treasury yield also hit a three-week high of over 3.6% during trading, indicating a shift in interest rate expectations [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Communications - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have been relatively hawkish, suggesting limited room for further rate cuts, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressing caution regarding future rate adjustments [4][5] - The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve indicates two more rate cuts by 2025, but several officials anticipate no further easing actions before 2026 [6] - Market pricing for rate cuts has adjusted, with traders now expecting a total of 41 basis points in cuts this year, indicating a reduction in the previously higher expectations for multiple cuts [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and subsequent communications has led to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, contributing to rising yields [5] - The overall yield curve has shifted higher as the Fed's language has become less dovish, impacting market expectations for upcoming rate cuts in October and December [6] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Powell, as his statements could further influence market sentiment and yield movements [6]