钴行业维持供应短缺 钴价有望强势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with a quota system to be implemented thereafter, indicating the government's commitment to controlling global cobalt prices [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) announced the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15 [1] - Starting October 16, cobalt exports will be subject to a quota system, with the export quota for 2026-2027 set at only 44% of annual production [1] Group 2: Market Implications - CITIC Securities suggests that the quota system reflects the DRC government's determination to stabilize global cobalt prices by flexibly adjusting supply [1] - The export quota policy is expected to result in significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, with supply shortages projected at 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [1] - As a result, cobalt prices are anticipated to rise sharply, benefiting companies involved in cobalt smelting in Indonesia and those with mining operations in the DRC [1]