Core Viewpoint - The British pound's exchange rate against the US dollar is influenced by upcoming inflation data, which will be crucial for the Bank of England's interest rate decisions in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 [1] Group 1: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that while inflation is expected to return to the 2% target, the economy is "not out of the woods" yet [1] - The central bank maintains a forecast that the consumer price index will peak at 4%, with July and August data showing an increase of 3.8% [1] - The September inflation data is anticipated to be released in mid-October, and if the Bank's predictions hold, a rate cut may occur before Q1 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Positioning and Currency Movements - The sustained high interest rates due to rising inflation are expected to have a more detrimental effect on the pound [1] - As of September 16, the net short positions on the pound decreased to 6,580 contracts, marking the smallest size since the shift from net long to short positions at the end of July [1] - The GBP/USD pair has seen a slight rebound after a continuous decline from a two-and-a-half-month high of 1.3725, breaking below key support levels [1]
英国央行称未走出通胀困境 利率前景持续牵动英镑
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-23 02:48