Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the market's expectations for the photovoltaic industry, particularly for polysilicon prices, are "overly" optimistic, predicting a significant price decline due to weak demand and aggressive cost-cutting by leading manufacturers [1][2] Group 1: Market Expectations - Since July 1, photovoltaic stocks have risen by an average of 40%, with market pricing reflecting expectations of polysilicon prices reaching 60 yuan per kilogram [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 20% decline in polysilicon prices to approximately 42 yuan per kilogram, driven by a pessimistic outlook on future demand [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Pressure - Anticipated component demand is expected to drop by 40% to 45% year-on-year from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, with global component demand already experiencing a sharp decline in June and July [1] - The industry is facing increasing inventory pressure, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which is leading to a situation where price increases upstream are not being transmitted downstream, further compressing profit margins in the photovoltaic industry [1] Group 3: Cost Reduction by Leading Firms - Leading companies are rapidly reducing production costs through optimizing factory capacity and adopting cost-reduction technologies, with cash costs expected to decrease by 10% to 14% across major segments of the supply chain [2] - Specifically, polysilicon cash costs are projected to fall to 25 yuan per kilogram, providing an incentive for leading firms to lower prices to gain market share in a weak demand environment [2] Group 4: Profitability and Valuation Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has lowered its EBITDA forecasts for the photovoltaic industry by an average of 45% compared to market consensus, indicating a downward pressure on valuations [2] - Although EBITDA expectations for polysilicon have been raised for 2025-2027, long-term forecasts for 2028-2030 have been downgraded, reflecting a cautious analysis of demand, costs, and prices [2]
高盛：市场对多晶硅价格预期过高
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-09-23 02:51