智通财经网·2025-09-23 03:19Core Viewpoint - The aviation stocks have collectively declined, with significant drops observed in major airlines, while a report indicates a mixed outlook for demand recovery and profitability in the upcoming months [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Southern Airlines (01055) fell by 4.93%, trading at 3.86 HKD [1] - Air China (00753) decreased by 4.34%, trading at 5.29 HKD [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped by 2.6%, trading at 3 HKD [1] - Capital Airport (00694) declined by 1.43%, trading at 2.75 HKD [1] Group 2: Demand and Profitability Outlook - From April to May, commercial demand showed a year-on-year recovery, supporting airlines in reducing fuel costs during the off-peak season, leading to a significant reduction in losses for Q2 [1] - However, unexpected weakness in commercial demand during July to August resulted in a lack of profitability during the summer travel season [1] - Despite the pressure from reduced commercial demand, a decline in ticket prices and oil prices is expected to offset losses, with summer travel profitability still projected to increase year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of commercial demand after the important October meetings, with initial signs in September indicating a strong demand that may validate the previous unexpected weakness as a temporary issue [1] - If the recovery in commercial demand proves sustainable, a significant upward shift in airline profitability is anticipated starting in 2026 [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is expected to continue controlling flight schedule growth for the winter season of 2025/26, which, along with low-price management during the off-peak season, will help airlines significantly reduce losses and potentially achieve profitability for the entire year of 2025 [1]