Core Viewpoint - The current round of retail fuel price adjustment is likely to be suspended due to insufficient adjustment margin, with the expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices being only 15 yuan/ton, which does not meet the 50 yuan/ton requirement for adjustment [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 9 to September 23), international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the change rate moving from negative to positive but remaining at a low level [1] - As of September 22, the reference crude oil change rate was 0.39%, indicating a potential increase in retail fuel prices by 15 yuan/ton, with the adjustment window set for September 23 at 24:00 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The crude oil market has been influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, including concerns over oil supply due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, which initially supported higher oil prices [1] - However, as geopolitical disturbances have lessened and expectations of oil inventory accumulation remain, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend in recent days [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle will exert downward pressure on oil prices, while factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and disturbances in Europe may provide some support [1] - For the next pricing cycle, the initial crude oil change rate is expected to start negatively, with a projected retail fuel price decrease of 80 yuan/ton, with the adjustment window on October 13 at 24:00 [1] - The upcoming adjustment cycle will span the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, leading to significant uncertainty regarding the final price adjustment outcome [1]
本轮成品油零售限价调整或将搁浅 新周期原油变化率或负值开局
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-23 03:31