Core Viewpoint - The Canadian central bank maintains a dovish stance on monetary policy due to a weak domestic job market, significant contraction in the export sector, and inflation levels close to the 2% target, indicating a readiness to implement further easing measures if necessary [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Canadian job market remains weak, contributing to the central bank's decision to maintain a loose monetary policy [1] - There is a notable contraction in the export sector, which is a significant factor influencing the central bank's stance [1] - Inflation is currently near the 2% policy target, which affects the central bank's decision-making process [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - The short-term interest rate futures market indicates a cumulative rate cut of approximately 19 basis points by the end of the year, with a 60% probability of maintaining the current rate in the October meeting [1] - The overnight index swap market reflects a stronger easing expectation, pricing in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut by year-end, potentially lowering the policy rate to 2.25% [1] - Both pricing models suggest that the Canadian dollar market has not broken the "gradual easing" expectation framework, leading to continued pressure on the CAD against other major currencies [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD short-term moving averages show a mild downward trend, with the RSI indicator falling to a neutral-low level, suggesting a slight bearish advantage [2] - A break below the 1.3820 support level could lead to further declines towards 1.3780 and 1.3750, while a rebound above the 1.3900 resistance could restart an upward trend towards the 1.3950 level [2] - Overall, the USD/CAD pair is expected to maintain a range-bound movement, with slight downward pressure prevailing [2]
加央行渐进式宽松预期未改 加元持续承压于利差
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-23 05:00