城市燃气公司对市场前景“焦虑” 气电将迎发展窗口期

Core Insights - The domestic natural gas supply is expected to increase significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected annual growth rate of over 6%, leading to a total resource availability of over 570 billion cubic meters by 2030 [1] - Natural gas is identified as a crucial energy source for China's new urbanization and power system construction, with an increasingly improved supply chain and declining prices creating more opportunities for industry development [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic natural gas production has exceeded 10 billion cubic meters annually for eight consecutive years, with a projected output of 246.4 billion cubic meters in 2024, and unconventional gas contributing significantly with a 45% share [2] - The LNG receiving capacity has increased by 56.6 million tons per year since 2020, with 32 receiving stations now operational, enhancing the security and stability of natural gas supply [2] - The total length of long-distance pipelines has reached 1.28 million kilometers, with 38 gas storage facilities established, providing a peak-shaving capacity of 26.67 billion cubic meters, which is about 6.3% of annual consumption [2] Price Trends - A new supply expansion phase in the global natural gas market is anticipated, with LNG production capacity expected to exceed 710 million tons per year by 2030, leading to a gradual decline in international gas prices [3] - The reduction in resource costs is expected to be transmitted to the end market, potentially lowering pipeline gas prices and stimulating market growth, with national demand projected to exceed 560 billion cubic meters by 2030 [3] Natural Gas Power Generation - Experts express optimism for natural gas power generation, which currently accounts for only 3.2% of China's power generation mix compared to 22% globally, indicating significant growth potential [3] - The expected increase in gas-fired power generation capacity to 500 million kilowatts will play a critical role in ensuring grid safety and enhancing the proportion of green electricity [3][4] Urban Gas Consumption - Urban gas consumption has shown substantial growth, increasing from 62.8 billion cubic meters in 2015 to 124.6 billion cubic meters in 2020, but the growth rate has slowed during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - There remains considerable potential for growth in urban gas consumption, particularly in major cities where coal consumption is still significant, suggesting a shift from coal to gas could increase gas consumption by approximately 55 billion cubic meters [6] Challenges for Gas Companies - Gas companies face challenges such as increased safety investments, the need for upgrading aging pipelines, and lagging technological development, which may hinder their ability to reinvest [7] - The implementation of a pricing mechanism that reflects market conditions is essential for the sustainability of gas companies, as many are currently facing significant losses due to price discrepancies [7]