棕榈油主力下破9000元/吨 短期偏弱调整行情依旧

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 8964.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of 3.88% [1] Group 1: Market Data - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 6.57% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil yield for the period of September 1-20, 2025, along with a 0.25% decrease in extraction rate and a 7.89% reduction in production [2] - As of September 19, domestic palm oil commercial inventory stands at 600,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 130,000 tons [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) indicated that the price of crude palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 4200 to 4500 MYR per ton in the short term, supported by a robust global vegetable oil market and supply uncertainties [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures suggests that the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for palm oil market consumption expectations, with buying demand noted in mid-September. The fundamental outlook remains bullish, but caution is advised due to frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policies that may negatively impact palm oil adjustments [3] - Dae Yu Futures notes that oilseed prices are stabilizing, with a relaxed domestic fundamental environment and stable oilseed supply. The USDA's high production expectations for South America in 2024/25 and neutral Malaysian palm oil inventory are highlighted, along with improved demand due to Indonesia's B40 policy promoting domestic consumption [3]