补库需求逐步释放，煤价或将坚挺上涨

Core Viewpoint - The demand for terminal procurement is increasing, leading to a continued rise in thermal coal prices. The release of coal production capacity is affected as the double festival approaches, coupled with the upcoming maintenance of the Daqin Line, resulting in increased replenishment demand from terminal power plants and a gradual release of non-electric coal demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal production capacity release is impacted as the double festival approaches, and the Daqin Line will undergo maintenance, which is expected to support coal prices in the short term [1][2][3] - The coking coal market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with policies against overproduction providing some support to coking coal prices, although the profitability of downstream steel mills is narrowing, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the market, with significant price increases observed in coal and power equipment sectors, amidst a mixed performance in the equity market [2][3] - The average market turnover reached 2.5 trillion yuan, with daily financing purchases fluctuating around 260 billion yuan, indicating increased market rotation and the coal sector outperforming the broader market index [2][3] Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the United States, and a joint announcement of a growth stabilization plan for the automotive industry was made, which positively impacted related sectors [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points also contributed to a favorable environment for the coal and related industries [2][3]