Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the article emphasizes the effectiveness of the central bank's policy tools introduced on September 24, 2024, in stabilizing the market and guiding capital flow, while also highlighting existing structural challenges in the capital market [1][3][5]. Policy Implementation and Market Stability - The combination of monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies has played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations, with the central bank's tools effectively alleviating liquidity pressure on non-bank institutions, particularly during quarter-end and holiday periods [3][5]. - Following the implementation of these policies, the volatility of the CSI 300 index significantly decreased, and risk premiums converged, indicating a positive impact on market stability [3][5][6]. Structural Challenges - Despite the positive effects, the policies primarily served as a "floor" rather than a "lift," with some tools showing insufficient transmission efficiency and a cautious approach from smaller financial institutions regarding the use of swap facilities [5][6]. - The slow pace of macroeconomic recovery and the lack of significant improvement in corporate profit expectations continue to pose structural challenges in the capital market [5][6]. Capital Flow Characteristics - The liquidity released by the policies has been directed towards key sectors such as small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing, with a notable increase in the proportion of medium to long-term loans [6][7]. - Market behavior has shown a trend towards long-term investment, with institutional investors focusing on financial, consumer, and growth sectors, while individual investors are shifting from short-term speculation to medium to long-term holding [6][7]. Beneficiaries of Policy Measures - The sectors and companies that have truly benefited from the policies are primarily stable cash flow blue-chip enterprises and those in technology innovation and advanced manufacturing, including finance, energy, and consumption [7][8]. - Stock buybacks and increased loans have been widely applied in high-end manufacturing, new energy, and biomedicine, effectively alleviating capital expenditure pressures and promoting technological upgrades [7][8]. Coordination of Macro Policies - The coordination between monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies has formed a comprehensive "macro policy combination," effectively addressing economic downward pressure and stabilizing growth [8][9]. - The combination of active fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies has successfully reduced production and financing costs for enterprises, enhancing market vitality and creativity [8][9]. Long-term Market Improvement Factors - Among various factors driving the market, capital market reforms and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow are deemed crucial for the long-term improvement of market fundamentals [9][10]. - Reforms aimed at optimizing listing systems, enhancing the quality of listed companies, and improving the mechanisms for mergers and acquisitions have strengthened market stability and investor confidence [9][10].
田轩解读 "924 政策" 一周年：流动性托底见效 结构性改革塑造长期生态
Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-09-23 06:43