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国泰海通:重视航空超级周期长逻辑 关注公商恢复持续性
智通财经网·2025-09-23 06:57

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is entering a "super cycle" due to the recovery of supply and demand, with passenger load factors exceeding 2019 levels and expected to continue improving [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market for airline ticket prices is becoming more liberalized, allowing for better transmission of high load factors to ticket prices [2] - The growth rate of airline fleets is slowing, reducing the negative impact of increased investment in third and fourth-tier cities on ticket prices [2] - The demand for air travel in China is still in its early stages, with low frequency and penetration, indicating a long-term growth trend [2] Group 2: Seasonal Performance - In Q3, despite a temporary decline in business and commercial demand, profitability is still expected to exceed that of Q3 2019 [3][4] - The recovery of business demand in September is anticipated to set a historical high for the month, with domestic ticket prices turning positive year-on-year [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to drive strong travel demand, with airlines optimistic about pre-sale volumes and prices [5] - Continuous monitoring of business demand recovery post-October meetings is crucial, as sustained recovery could significantly elevate airline profitability by 2026 [5] - The Chinese aviation sector is expected to maintain strict control over flight schedules, which will help airlines reduce losses and improve profitability in the medium term [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The long-term logic of the aviation "super cycle" suggests significant potential for performance and valuation growth, recommending strategic investment in high-quality airline networks [6] - Preferred stocks include China National Aviation (601111.SH), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [6]