市场供大于求的格局未有效改善 纯碱短期偏弱震荡

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1287.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 1290.00 CNY and a low of 1266.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.45% [1] - East China Futures analysis suggests that while soda ash production has slightly decreased due to maintenance of some facilities, the overall supply remains ample. Demand has stabilized week-on-week, but terminal demand has not significantly changed, indicating limited upward potential for demand [1] - The current market is characterized by high supply and inventory coupled with weak demand, leading to a short-term outlook of increased supply and demand due to the peak season and upstream maintenance. However, the long-term view remains bearish due to supply-side contradictions that are expected to suppress prices [1] Group 2 - Guosen Futures states that the fundamentals of soda ash are weak, predicting a short-term price decline and recommending a strategy of short selling on rallies [2] - Jianxin Futures notes that while the contradictions in the soda ash industry have eased somewhat in the short term, the supply remains excessive, and the market continues to experience a supply-demand imbalance. However, macroeconomic sentiment has improved slightly, providing some support for soda ash prices [2] - The expectation is for prices to fluctuate with a slight upward bias, but the lack of substantial positive factors means that future attention should be paid to macroeconomic changes [2]