阿根廷农产品出口暂时免税政策冲击下全球油粕市场普跌

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's temporary suspension of export tariffs on agricultural products is expected to enhance the competitiveness of its soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal, putting additional pressure on the U.S. soybean market, which is already facing challenges due to reduced demand from China [2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Soybean Market - Argentina announced a temporary suspension of export tariffs on soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, and wheat until October 31, with an estimated export value of $7 billion [2]. - The suspension will reduce export tariffs on Argentine soybeans from 26% to 0%, and on soybean oil from 24.5% to 0%, significantly increasing their competitiveness [2]. - The U.S. soybean market is under pressure as it faces heightened competition from Argentina, especially given the current lack of Chinese purchases [2][4]. Group 2: Domestic Market Reactions - The decline in U.S. soybean prices has led to a decrease in domestic import costs for soybeans, with the theoretical cost of imported U.S. soybeans dropping to 4,437 yuan, a decrease of 52 yuan [3]. - Domestic soybean meal prices have also been affected, with significant drops observed across various oilseed products, including a more than 4% decline in No. 2 yellow soybeans [1][3]. - Despite the negative impact, there are some supportive factors in the domestic market, such as increased trading volumes and price rebounds in soybean meal due to pre-holiday stockpiling [5][6]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The U.S. soybean crop is facing challenges, including lower quality ratings and slow harvesting progress, which may provide some support to prices [4]. - Analysts suggest that while the market is currently under pressure, the potential for a rebound exists due to seasonal factors and the possibility of reduced U.S. soybean yields [6]. - The overall supply-demand dynamics in the fourth quarter are expected to tighten, which could enhance cost support for soybean meal [6].