宽松与避险共振 贵金属价格获强劲上行推力

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by investor reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and future plans, with gold reaching a new historical high above $3740 and silver hitting its highest level since May 2011 [1][2]. Market Review - On Monday, gold prices increased by over $60, closing up 1.67% at $3746.63 per ounce, while silver rose 2.38% to $44.02 per ounce [1][2]. - The decline in the US dollar index, combined with expectations of monetary easing and risk aversion, contributed to the strong rise in precious metal prices [3]. Key News Summary - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views, cautioning against further rate cuts and suggesting limited room for additional easing. This has somewhat diminished market expectations for significant short-term rate cuts, which may limit upward pressure on gold and silver prices [3]. - The formal recognition of Palestine by countries like France may increase uncertainty in the Middle East, potentially providing some support for precious metal prices due to heightened risk aversion [3]. Trading Strategy - The gold and silver markets are currently influenced by mixed factors, leading to potential short-term volatility, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact. Investors should pay close attention to upcoming statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as cautious remarks could trigger profit-taking and price corrections [4]. - Technically, key support for gold is around $3600, with potential upward movement towards $3800. Silver's support has been raised to approximately $41, with the next target around $45 [4].