智能音箱市场遇冷 AI能否成为“救命稻草”？

Core Insights - The smart speaker market in China is experiencing a significant decline, with a projected sales volume of 15.7 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%, and a sales revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, down 29.4% [1] - The market has faced continuous sales declines since 2021, with a drop of around 20% even with government subsidies [1] - Once a star product in consumer electronics, smart speakers have become saturated, leading to severe product homogeneity and reduced consumer interest [1] Market Dynamics - The leading brands in the smart speaker market, including Xiaomi, Baidu (Xiao Du), and Tmall Genie, maintain a combined market share of over 90%, reaching 96.5% in Q1 2025, yet they are also facing declining sales [2] - Privacy concerns have emerged as a significant issue, highlighted by incidents of smart speakers recording private moments, which has heightened consumer apprehension [2] Technological Developments - AI large models are seen as a potential solution for smart speaker manufacturers, with major companies like Xiaomi and Baidu integrating AI capabilities into their products [2] - The market penetration of smart speakers supporting AI large models exceeded 20% in Q1 2025, indicating a shift towards more intelligent devices [2] Challenges Ahead - Despite the integration of AI large models, the fragmentation of the smart home ecosystem remains a critical challenge, as different brands struggle to work seamlessly together [3] - The reliance on cloud services makes smart speakers vulnerable; any server issues could severely impact device functionality [3] - The path to recovery for the smart speaker market is fraught with challenges, requiring not only technological integration but also improvements in content service quality and ecosystem coherence [3]