智通财经网·2025-09-23 07:44Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in business volume growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% in August, indicating a shift away from price-driven growth strategies due to anti-involution policies [1][3][4] Group 1: Business Volume and Growth Trends - In August, the total business volume of express delivery companies reached 16.15 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [1] - The growth rate of business volume has been gradually declining since March, influenced by a high base from the previous year and diminishing returns from price-driven strategies [1][3] - The growth in same-city delivery volume decreased by 0.8%, while inter-city delivery volume increased by 14.0% [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Pricing - SF Express continues to lead the industry with a growth rate exceeding 30% since April, while the growth rates of other major companies in the Tongda system have declined and are below the industry average [2] - In August, the average revenue per piece for Shentong, YTO, and Yunda increased by 4.6%, 3.4%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Shentong showed the best performance in August, with a slight decline in volume growth but an increase in revenue per piece by 0.09 yuan [2] Group 3: Impact of Anti-Involution Policies - Recent anti-involution policies have effectively curbed price-driven behaviors in the industry, leading to a more sustainable growth model focused on service quality rather than price competition [3][4] - The upward trend in average revenue per piece is expected to continue, although the rebound may not be as strong as in 2021 due to a less intense price war this year [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current anti-involution measures are expected to exceed market expectations, positively impacting company profitability and stock prices [5] - Companies to focus on include industry leaders with superior service quality such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, as well as Shentong Express, which has shown significant improvement in operational data [5]