Why Deere Stock At $470 Is A Great Buy?

Core Viewpoint - John Deere is experiencing a slowdown in sales due to customer uncertainty linked to tariffs, leading to layoffs and significant financial impacts, yet the stock has risen, indicating investor confidence in future recovery [2][3][12]. Company Performance - John Deere plans to lay off over 200 workers due to a sales slowdown, attributing a $300 million loss this year to tariffs, with a forecasted total impact of nearly $600 million [2]. - Adjusted earnings have declined from $34.63 in 2023 to $25.62 in 2024, with expectations of further decline to approximately $18.55 this year [3]. - Despite declining earnings, Deere's stock has increased by 12% year-to-date and 15% over the last year, currently trading around $470 [3]. Industry Context - Deere is a cyclical company closely tied to agricultural demand cycles, currently at a low point, with a recovery anticipated around fiscal 2026 [5][12]. - The agricultural equipment sector is expected to see significant growth in 2026 and 2027, making Deere's current valuation attractive for long-term investors [5][12]. Financial Metrics - Deere's revenue decreased by 20.9% over the last 12 months, from $55 billion to $43 billion, with an 8.3% drop in the most recent quarter [16]. - The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 52.7%, which is higher than the S&P 500's 21.0%, but still manageable for an industrial firm [10]. - Operating margin stands at 20.0% compared to the S&P 500's 18.6%, and net income margin is at 12.0% versus the S&P 500's 12.7% [16]. Key Catalysts - Inventory normalization has been achieved, aligning production with retail demand, which is expected to support healthier growth in the future [16]. - Federal rate cuts are making financing agricultural equipment less expensive, encouraging farmers to invest in new machinery [16]. - Deere is trading at 2.9 times revenue, lower than Caterpillar and reasonably compared to the wider market, indicating attractive valuation [16]. Long-term Outlook - The cyclical downturn is expected to conclude, with Deere positioned for recovery, making it an appealing investment for those with a 3-5 year outlook [12][18]. - Historical performance shows Deere's resilience during market stress, indicating potential for strong rebounds when conditions improve [11][18].