天风MorningCall·0923 | 策略-牛市观测、情绪指标/固收-信用票息、债市定价

Group 1 - The daily return volatility of actively managed equity funds heavily invested in overseas computing power has increased since August 25, with a rising correlation between their returns and the overseas computing power index since June [1] - The adjustment level of actively managed equity funds focused on overseas computing power chains is not expected to significantly impact the leading companies in this sector [1] - There is a divergence in the market regarding the main overseas computing power chain, with a study indicating that funds that aggressively increased their positions during the Q2 pullback have shown strong investment capabilities [1] Group 2 - In the current week (September 15-19), the overall A-share market declined by 0.18%, with sectors like photolithography machines and optical modules showing strong performance [2] - Key themes include the domestic photolithography machine validation by SMIC, the high demand for AIDC driven by policy, and the expansion of service consumption as a new growth engine [2] - The overall industry sentiment indicates an upward trend in sectors such as steel, construction materials, and electronics, while sectors like oil and food are trending downward [9] Group 3 - The bond market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with credit bonds showing mixed performance and a "V" shaped trend in interest rates [6] - The market is expected to continue oscillating within a range, influenced by the interplay of institutional behavior and fundamental pressures [7] - The focus on credit bonds suggests a preference for strategies that prioritize coupon income over trading, given the current market conditions [6] Group 4 - The recent Federal Reserve meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to lead to valuation recovery in the building materials sector [15] - The Xinjiang region is highlighted for its strong economic growth, with fixed asset investment increasing by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating robust demand for construction materials [15] - Key companies to watch in the cement chain include Qingsong Construction, Tianshan Shares, and Western Construction, with significant projects expected to drive demand [15]