每经热评 | “公布订单总数达1亿”，车企“营销通胀”何时休

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing a phenomenon of "order inflation," where companies report inflated order numbers for marketing purposes, leading to a disconnect between reported orders and actual sales [1][4]. Group 1: Order Statistics - As of this year, the number of small orders for passenger cars in China has exceeded 50 million, with 80% completed within 72 hours of new car launches [1]. - From January to August, the cumulative wholesale sales of passenger cars in China were approximately 17.93 million, while retail sales were about 14.70 million, highlighting a significant gap between orders and actual sales [1]. Group 2: Conversion Rates - The conversion rate for small or blind orders is relatively low, with one electric vehicle company's chairman stating it is only 10% [2]. - For a model launched last year that claimed to have 30,000 orders within 72 hours, the total delivery by July this year was only 50,000 units [2]. Group 3: Motivations Behind Order Inflation - The first driving logic is marketing and herd mentality, where companies create a false sense of demand to attract consumers who fear being left with less popular models [3]. - The second logic involves managing investor perceptions, as small order numbers serve as a confidence index for both consumers and investors [3]. - The third logic is that companies feel pressured to inflate orders to keep up with industry trends, leading to a cycle where honest companies struggle to compete [3]. Group 4: Consequences of Order Inflation - Misleading marketing can distort consumer decision-making, potentially leading them to choose unsuitable products [4]. - Order inflation can disrupt production plans, causing inventory buildup and resource misallocation [4]. - The practice undermines the survival of honest companies, creating a vicious cycle where bad practices drive out good ones [4]. - It also damages industry credibility, as consumers become skeptical of any reported data when popular models fail to deliver [4]. Group 5: Regulatory Response and Industry Shift - Regulatory bodies have initiated actions to address marketing irregularities in the automotive sector, aiming to restore rationality in the industry [4]. - Some companies are beginning to reject the publication of inflated order data, focusing instead on more substantive metrics like "lock-in rates" and "delivery targets" [4]. - Industry leaders are calling for a return to product-centric marketing, emphasizing the importance of genuine consumer needs and product quality [4][5]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The competition in the automotive industry is fundamentally about technology, products, and services rather than numerical games [5]. - As consumers become more rational and regulations tighten, the space for inflated orders will diminish [5]. - Companies must abandon the obsession with false prosperity and focus on real user needs to survive in the competitive landscape of the electric vehicle market [5].