英国国债风暴未完结? 首席经济学家力挺英国央行加速缩表

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Chief Economist Huw Pill advocates for a faster reduction of the central bank's large bond balance sheet accumulated under quantitative easing (QE), suggesting that the market is stronger than previously thought and that the central bank has robust tools to support it in case of market stress [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current "UK bond storm" is primarily due to the loss of the Bank of England as a major buyer, leading to increased volatility and weaker demand for long-dated gilt bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds, which saw yields rise to a new high of 5.7% in early September [2][5] - Pill expressed dissent against the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to slow the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from £100 billion to £70 billion, arguing that market demand is stronger than other officials believe [2][5] Group 2: Quantitative Easing and Financial Impact - The Bank of England still holds nearly £600 billion in UK government bonds, despite ongoing QT efforts, which include actively selling bonds and not reinvesting the principal of maturing bonds [5][6] - Since the Bank of England raised the base rate above 2%, its asset portfolio has incurred losses of approximately £93 billion, erasing most of the £124 billion profit gained since 2009, and is projected to result in taxpayer losses exceeding £100 billion over the project's lifecycle [6][10] Group 3: Policy and Governance - Pill emphasized the need for well-designed government fiscal rules to address the large capital flows resulting from past QE decisions, indicating that the complexities arising from QE are not the central bank's responsibility [6][10] - The UK Treasury has lost 75% of the profits previously gained through QE, highlighting the significant financial implications of the current monetary policy environment [9]