A股慢牛，不靠宽松

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning from a "loose illusion" to a "realization" of certainty in trading logic following the September 22 press conference, where key financial regulators presented the achievements of the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 22, the A-share market experienced a significant rally, with all major indices closing in the green despite no changes to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4][5]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares increased from 68 trillion yuan to 104 trillion yuan, adding 36 trillion yuan, with over 3,000 stocks rising more than 50% [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.4%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing [5][6]. - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, and retail sales reached 3.97 trillion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, reflecting a mixed economic recovery [5][6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, indicating a stable monetary policy stance [6][7]. - Factors contributing to a sense of liquidity include coordinated fiscal and monetary efforts, structural tools mitigating total volume silence, and enhanced global price comparisons due to the Fed's easing cycle [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - High-growth sectors such as semiconductor equipment, new energy batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals are benefiting from a "Davis double hit" effect, while state-owned enterprises are offering stable dividends [9][10]. - The share of technology companies in the A-share market capitalization has surpassed 25%, with a notable increase in the number of tech firms among the top 50 companies [12]. Group 5: Financial System Resilience - The Chinese financial system has shown significant resilience, with total banking assets nearing 470 trillion yuan and a second-place ranking globally in stock and bond market size [10][11]. - The proportion of direct financing has increased to 31.6%, indicating a shift away from reliance on bank credit towards capital market financing [10]. Group 6: Risk Management and Regulatory Environment - The number of local government financing platforms has decreased by over 60%, and financial debt has been reduced by more than 50%, indicating a controlled approach to systemic risk [11][13]. - Regulatory measures are evolving, focusing on enhancing market rules and ensuring orderly market operations, which supports the current market valuation restructuring [11][13].