诺德基金基金经理周建胜：政策暖风催生长期升势，双轮驱动布局未来机遇

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the A-share market, termed the "9·24行情," is driven by a combination of systematic policy support, recovery in corporate earnings, and long-term capital inflow, indicating a potential shift towards a long-term positive trend in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Earnings Drivers - The improvement in market confidence over the past year is fundamentally supported by two pillars: systematic and sustained policy measures, and the recovery of corporate earnings [2]. - Policies have transitioned from short-term market rescue tools to foundational elements for medium- to long-term institutional development, facilitating a shift from "blood transfusion" to "blood production" for the A-share market [2]. - Corporate earnings are showing signs of recovery, with the 2024 mid-year reports indicating a rebound in overall profitability for A-share listed companies, particularly in the midstream manufacturing, consumer services, and TMT sectors [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - A-share market is gradually moving away from a "fast rise and fall" model to a more stable "oscillating upward" pattern, with increased trading volume and rational investor sentiment [3]. - There is a historical shift in asset allocation, with funds moving from traditional sectors like real estate and wealth management into equity markets, driven by the "wealth effect" and declining risk-free rates [3]. - Public fund sizes surpassed 30 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, with significant growth in equity and mixed funds, indicating a positive outlook for the A-share market [3]. Group 3: Strategies for Market Volatility - Despite the established upward trend in the A-share market, volatility and adjustments are expected due to external uncertainties and market corrections [4]. - Investors are advised to maintain strategic focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations, as attempting to avoid every market pullback may lead to missed opportunities [5]. - Emphasis on high-quality assets that align with national strategies is crucial for capitalizing on market recovery and minimizing risks [5]. Group 4: Investment Themes - The first main investment theme is "Asset Revaluation," where A-share valuations remain low compared to historical averages, particularly for quality blue-chip and state-owned enterprises [7]. - The second main theme is "New Quality Productive Forces," which encompasses strategic emerging industries such as AI, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, representing significant growth potential [9][10]. - Specific investment opportunities include state-owned enterprise reforms, high-dividend stocks, and sectors undergoing domestic substitution due to external pressures [8][10]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The "9·24行情" marks not just a market rebound but a pivotal point for the restructuring of the A-share ecosystem, with policy effects shifting towards long-term institutional development and continuous optimization of capital structure [11]. - Investors are encouraged to balance their portfolios between undervalued, high-dividend value sectors and high-growth, technology-driven areas to navigate market volatility and seize opportunities [11].