智通财经网·2025-09-23 13:32Core Viewpoint - The smart glasses industry is approaching a "breakout critical point" with major tech companies like Meta launching new smart glasses, and AI glasses expected to dominate growth from 2025 to 2027, followed by AR glasses from 2028 onwards. China is positioned as a key player in the global supply chain with over 80% supplier representation [1]. Industry Trends - The smart glasses market is entering a phase of accelerated demand release, characterized by a "two-stage differentiation" growth logic: - First Stage (2025-2027): AI glasses will lead growth with an expected annual shipment growth rate of 25%, focusing on lightweight applications such as voice interaction and health monitoring [2]. - Second Stage (2028 onwards): AR glasses will take over with an anticipated annual shipment growth rate of 101%, driven by advancements in display technology and computational power [2]. - The overall global smart glasses shipment compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030 is projected to reach 40%, with a doubling point expected around 2027 due to consumer electronics replacement cycles and enterprise applications [2]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The global smart glasses supply chain is characterized by "China dominance and regional division of labor": - Supply Side: Chinese companies control over 80% of core components, including cameras, optical waveguides, MEMS, and batteries, with significant market shares in camera modules, optical coatings, and assembly [3]. Manufacturing Landscape - China remains the core manufacturing base for smart glasses, with major production hubs in Shandong and Guangdong. However, electronic manufacturing services (EMS) are gradually shifting some non-core assembly operations to Southeast Asia to mitigate supply chain risks, while retaining core component production in China [4]. Technological Barriers - The industry's core competitive focus is on two main technological directions: - Drug delivery efficiency (e.g., optical transmittance for AR glasses, voice recognition accuracy for AI glasses) - User adaptability (e.g., lightweight design, battery life, and matching usage scenarios for different demographics) [5]. Key Company Analysis - GoerTek: Recognized as the global leader in smart glasses assembly, with over 70% of orders from major clients like Meta and Sony. The target price is set at 42 RMB based on a projected PE of 34 times for 2026, reflecting a 30% annual growth expectation in the smart glasses assembly business [6]. - Crystal Optoelectronics: A core supplier of optical waveguides for AR glasses, with a target price of 30 RMB based on a PE of 27 times for 2026. The company is expected to achieve a stable 22% CAGR in earnings from 2024 to 2027 [7]. - Sunny Optical: A leading supplier of camera modules for smart glasses, with a target price of 104 HKD based on a PE of 25 times for 2026. The company is positioned for growth due to improvements in the optical industry and the potential of smart glasses as a second growth curve [10].