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美银:全球智能眼镜竞赛已加速 中国牢牢占领制造中心地位
智通财经网·2025-09-23 13:39

Core Insights - The smart glasses industry is approaching a "critical point of explosion" with major tech companies like Meta launching new smart glasses [1] - Bank of America predicts that AI glasses will dominate growth from 2025 to 2027, while AR glasses are expected to take over as the main growth driver starting in 2028 [1][2] - China is positioned as a key player in the global smart glasses supply chain, controlling over 80% of core components [4] Industry Trends - The smart glasses market is entering a phase of accelerated demand release, characterized by a "two-phase differentiation" growth logic [2] - Phase one (2025-2027): AI glasses, which do not have displays, are expected to lead growth with an average annual shipment growth rate of 25% due to their mature technology and cost-effectiveness [2] - Phase two (2028 onwards): AR glasses are projected to replace AI glasses, with an average annual shipment growth rate of 101% as display technology and optical solutions improve [3] Market Outlook - The global smart glasses shipment volume is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% from 2025 to 2030, with a potential doubling point around 2027 driven by consumer electronics replacement cycles and enterprise applications [3] Supply Chain Dynamics - The global smart glasses supply chain is characterized by "China dominance and regional division of labor," with Chinese suppliers covering key areas such as cameras, optical waveguides, MEMS, and batteries [4] - Major manufacturing bases for smart glasses are concentrated in China, while some non-core assembly processes are gradually moving to Southeast Asia to mitigate supply chain risks [5] Technological Barriers - The core competitive focus in the industry is on two technological directions: drug delivery efficiency and user adaptability, with companies holding key technology patents establishing differentiated barriers [6] Key Company Analysis - GoerTek (歌尔股份): Recognized as a global assembly leader with over 70% of orders from major clients like Meta and Sony, target price set at 42 RMB based on a 34x PE ratio for 2026 [7][8] - Crystal Optoelectronics (水晶光电): Core supplier of AR optical waveguide plates with a target price of 30 RMB based on a 27x PE ratio for 2026, supported by a stable 22% CAGR in earnings from 2024 to 2027 [10] - Sunny Optical Technology (舜宇光学): Major supplier of camera modules with over 60% global market share, target price set at 104 HKD based on a 25x PE ratio for 2026 [12]