【环球财经】经合组织上调今年全球经济增长预期

Core Insights - The OECD's mid-term economic outlook report predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, while growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, consistent with the June estimate [1] - The report highlights stronger-than-expected resilience in global economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, despite ongoing impacts from U.S. tariff policies [1] - Major risks to the global economic outlook include potential increases in tariff rates, renewed inflation pressures, heightened concerns over fiscal risks, and reassessment of financial market risks [1] Economic Projections - The U.S. economic growth is projected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, further slowing to 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to the offsetting effects of tariffs and tightened immigration policies against strong investment growth in high-tech industries [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth is expected to be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 [1] - The overall inflation rate for G20 countries is anticipated to decrease from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with core inflation rates for developed economies projected to drop to 2.6% and 2.5% in the next two years [1] Recommendations - The report suggests that countries should enhance cooperation within the global trade system while improving the transparency and predictability of trade policies in response to economic security concerns [2] - Central banks are advised to remain vigilant and respond swiftly to changes in risks affecting price stability [2] - There is a call for increased structural reform efforts to improve living standards and unlock potential benefits from new technologies such as artificial intelligence [2]