lululemon Q2 Metrics: Margin Squeezes as Tariffs & Markdowns Bite

Core Insights - Tariffs are significantly impacting lululemon athletica inc.'s profitability, with expectations of a 220-basis-point hit to gross margin in fiscal 2025, translating to nearly $240 million in additional expenses [1] - The removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption has added costs to lululemon's e-commerce model, compounding the effects of higher reciprocal tariff rates [1] - The company has revised its full-year 2025 outlook, now anticipating a gross margin decline of 300 basis points, up from a previous estimate of 110 basis points [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 fiscal 2025, lululemon's gross margin contracted by 110 basis points year-over-year to 58.5%, primarily due to higher markdowns and tariffs [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) of $3.10 exceeded estimates, but revenues of $2.53 billion fell short, with flat U.S. sales and a 3% decline in comparable sales [2] - Operating margin decreased by 210 basis points to 20.7%, with SG&A expenses rising by 9% as the company invested in marketing and digital initiatives [2] Market Position and Competitors - lululemon's shares have dropped 54.7% year-to-date, compared to a 28.6% decline in the industry [7] - Competitors like Ralph Lauren and NIKE are also facing margin pressures due to tariffs, but are employing different strategies to mitigate these impacts [4][5][6] - Ralph Lauren has managed to expand its gross margin through higher retail prices and reduced discounting, while NIKE's margins are under pressure from promotional activities and supply chain challenges [5][6] Future Outlook - The company expects continued margin pressures in fiscal 2026, projecting a net $320 million impact despite ongoing cost mitigation efforts [1][3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates an 11.1% year-over-year decline in fiscal 2025 earnings, with a slight growth of 1.6% expected in fiscal 2026 [10] - Current valuation shows lululemon trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.19X, higher than the industry average of 11.39X [9]