Long-term ASEAN sales outlook lowered following downturn in Indonesia

Core Insights - The ASEAN LV market experienced a growth of 3% YoY in H1 2025 but began H2 with a decline of 1% YoY, primarily due to negative sales in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [1] Indonesia Market Summary - LV sales in Indonesia fell by 17% YoY in July and continued to decline by 19% YoY in August, marking four consecutive months of double-digit declines, leading to an overall decrease of 10% YoY from January to August [2] - Political uncertainty and the potential for protest recurrence, along with a decrease in consumer income and increased debt payments, have led to a downward revision of the long-term sales outlook for Indonesia [3] - The projected LV volumes for Indonesia in 2025 are now estimated at 720k units, the lowest annual total in 15 years, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020 [3] Malaysia Market Summary - In Malaysia, LV sales dropped by 2% YoY in July, totaling 71k units, but August saw a 3% YoY increase and a 5% MoM increase to 75k units, the highest monthly sales total for the year [4] - The growth in August was driven by new model deliveries from Chinese brands and national brands, alongside ongoing price reductions stimulating sales [4] - The sales outlook for Malaysia in 2025 has been revised slightly upward to 790k units, with expectations of a boost in Q4 2025 as consumers rush to purchase before anticipated price hikes in 2026 due to changes in tax calculation methodology [5]