Major trigger Holmes believes could derail the bull run

Core Viewpoint - Markets across various sectors are approaching record highs, indicating ongoing optimism in the rally, but fiscal policy is identified as a significant risk factor rather than credit issues [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Current market conditions show that banks and corporations, including those in the S&P 500, are less leveraged compared to the pre-2008 financial crisis, reducing the likelihood of a credit crisis [2]. - Monetary policy is characterized by easing conditions, with money printing and falling interest rates, which are not crashing [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is viewed as the critical swing factor for risk assets, with a focus on the balance between taxes and spending [2][7]. - The impact of tariffs and regulations is highlighted, with past examples showing how quickly markets can adjust to fiscal changes [3][7]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The current tech and AI rally is differentiated from the dot-com bubble, as it is supported by revenue and cash flow rather than mere speculation [4]. - Bitcoin miners are recognized for their role in utilizing stranded and surplus energy, contributing to innovation in energy and infrastructure [4][5]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - There is a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, with expectations that it will lead advancements in data centers and high-performance computing, which are essential for the ongoing market growth [7].