电力市场化改革涉深水区 电价下行重构行业格局

Core Viewpoint - The downward trend in electricity prices in China is significantly impacting the profitability and investment decisions of power generation companies, driven by market reforms and increased competition in the renewable energy sector [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Electricity Price Trends - The average on-grid electricity price for Longyuan Power's generation business decreased to 399 RMB/MWh in the first half of the year, down 23 RMB/MWh from the same period in 2024 [2]. - The average on-grid price for wind power was 422 RMB/MWh, a decrease of 16 RMB/MWh, while solar power averaged 273 RMB/MWh, down 5 RMB/MWh [2]. - The implementation of the "136 Document" has led to a more market-driven pricing mechanism for renewable energy, contributing to the decline in electricity prices [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The marketization of electricity trading has reached over 60% of total electricity consumption, with a total of 2.95 trillion kWh traded in the first half of the year, marking a 4.8% increase year-on-year [5]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as coal prices decline, allowing thermal power companies to lower their prices to capture market share, which in turn pressures renewable energy prices [3][8]. Investment and Strategic Adjustments - Power generation companies are adjusting their investment strategies in response to the changing market conditions, focusing on cost control, project site selection, and enhancing trading capabilities [9][10]. - Companies are encouraged to explore diverse applications for green electricity, such as data centers and zero-carbon parks, to create new growth points [8][10]. - Long-term power purchase agreements are seen as a viable strategy for stabilizing revenue and supporting project financing in the face of price volatility [10]. Future Outlook - The electricity market is expected to experience cyclical fluctuations, with overall downward pressure on prices, although some regions may see price increases at certain times [10]. - The rapid growth of solar power installations has led to an oversupply in the market, further driving down prices, while wind power installations have not increased as rapidly, resulting in less price pressure [7][10].