国际能源署：全球氢能产业仍有望大幅增长

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects significant growth in the global low-carbon hydrogen industry by 2030, despite recent project cancellations and ongoing cost challenges leading to a nearly 25% reduction in announced project reserves [1] - The IEA's report indicates that the global low-carbon hydrogen production could reach 37 million tons by 2030, a decrease from the previous estimate of 49 million tons [1] - The IEA emphasizes that the capacity of operational, under-construction, or final investment decision (FID) projects will still grow more than fivefold compared to 2024, reaching over 4 million tons [1] Group 2 - In 2024, global hydrogen demand is expected to approach 100 million tons, reflecting a 2% increase from 2023, aligning with overall energy demand growth trends [2] - The majority of hydrogen production is still derived from fossil fuels, consuming 290 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 90 million tons of standard coal in 2024 [2] - The IEA notes that low-carbon hydrogen production projects have expanded from a few demonstration projects to over 200 committed investment projects, highlighting hydrogen's importance in achieving climate goals and enhancing energy security [2] Group 3 - The IEA anticipates that by 2030, the cost gap between traditional and low-carbon hydrogen production will narrow due to declining technology costs and rapid renewable energy development in certain regions [3] - Southeast Asia is emerging as a significant hydrogen market, with potential low-carbon hydrogen capacity projected to reach 430,000 tons per year by 2030, a substantial increase from the current 3,000 tons per year [3] - The IEA warns that many projects in Southeast Asia are still in early development stages and require accelerated renewable energy deployment and targeted policies to fully realize their potential [3]