ZACKSยท2025-09-23 18:36Core Insights - ZTO Express shares have declined 18.7% over the past year, underperforming the transportation-services industry's 14.5% decline [1][9] Financial Performance - ZTO Express is facing increasing pressure on its bottom line due to rising expenses, with a 14.2% year-over-year increase in total cost of revenues in 2024 and a 21.5% increase in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by higher sorting hub operating costs [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ZTO's 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 4.52% in the past 60 days, with a 2.35% downward revision for 2026, indicating a lack of confidence from brokers [7] Market Guidance - ZTO Express has lowered its 2025 parcel volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14-18%, down from a previous guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, which indicated a growth of 20-24% [5][9] Competitive Landscape - The domestic express delivery market is highly competitive, with major players like SF Express and STO Express, which may further pressure ZTO's stock price if competition intensifies [6] Industry Context - ZTO belongs to an industry currently ranked 206 out of 248 groups by Zacks, placing it in the bottom 16% of Zacks industries, suggesting that the overall industry performance significantly impacts stock price movements [10]