Group 1 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices reached intraday all-time highs on September 22, continuing a bullish trend for the third consecutive trading day, with the Russell 2000 index also maintaining upward momentum after hitting its highest closing level since 2021 on September 18 [1][2] - The market's positive reaction follows a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which, although expected, has contributed to investor optimism. The S&P 500 has risen over 30% since its low in early April and has set 28 new highs this year, driven by better-than-expected corporate earnings, economic resilience, and positive sentiment regarding the Fed's rate cuts [2][3] - Despite the bullish market conditions, concerns arise from the current high valuations of U.S. stocks, with some analysts suggesting that the market may be in a "bull trap." Additionally, the underperformance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) raises questions about the sustainability of the broader market rally [2][3] Group 2 - The DJTA, which consists of 20 leading transportation companies, has not followed the upward trend of the broader market and has instead declined this year. This divergence is significant as per Charles Dow's theory, which posits that both the DJIA and DJTA should rise together to confirm a legitimate market rebound [2][3] - Market observers, including former NYSE trader Tom Essaye, express concern that the DJTA's poor performance could indicate a potential "bull trap." He emphasizes that the index's relevance has evolved with the inclusion of logistics companies, which reflect the current state of commercial logistics [3][4] - Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, warns that investors should not overlook the weakness in transportation stocks, attributing it to macroeconomic factors such as tariff fluctuations and global growth slowdown, which could impact the broader market [3][4]
这一百年指数 或戳破美股“牛市幻境”
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao·2025-09-23 19:51