Forget Tariffs, Landstar and West Fraser Can Still Rally

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector, particularly trucking, is facing price pressures from trade tariffs, leading to a slowdown in business activity. However, this situation presents buying opportunities for investors willing to take a contrarian approach [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The trucking industry is experiencing a rare combination of slowing activity and rising prices, influenced by trade tariffs that favor Canadian timber imports. This has resulted in a decline in stock prices for companies like Landstar Systems and West Fraser Timber [2][3]. - Executive commentaries within the services PMI index indicate that the trucking industry is in a worse state than during the 2008 financial crisis, contributing to Landstar's stock being discounted to 64% of its 52-week high [3][4]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Landstar Systems Inc. - Landstar Systems operates not only as a trucking company but also provides logistics software, which is becoming increasingly important as efficiency is prioritized amid slowing volumes and rising prices [8]. - Financial metrics indicate that Landstar is operating at 280% of its baseline capacity, significantly higher than the industry average of 75.8%, suggesting that the company is not oversubscribed in trucking but rather in its software services [9]. - Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus price target of $145.17 for Landstar, indicating a potential upside of 16.8% from current trading levels. Institutional investors have also increased their holdings in Landstar, reflecting confidence in its future performance [10][11]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - West Fraser Timber Co. - The American housing market is currently facing challenges, with declining building permits and mortgage applications, leading to reduced demand for building products, including Canadian timber [5][6]. - Despite the housing slowdown, recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may positively impact demand for housing, which could benefit West Fraser if timber demand increases [6]. - West Fraser's stock is trading at 71% of its 52-week high, with analysts projecting a price target of $100 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 40.7% from current levels. The recent decline in short interest indicates a potential shift in market sentiment towards the stock [15].