Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic methanol futures market is returning to a weak fundamental-driven trend due to high supply pressure and weak demand, with prices expected to remain under pressure [1] - Domestic methanol production has decreased due to maintenance of several methanol plants, with an average operating rate of 79.39% and a weekly production average of 181.32 million tons, reflecting a significant drop [2] - The import volume of methanol is at a near two-year high, with expectations of continued high imports into the fourth quarter, contributing to increased port inventories [3] Group 2 - Despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, the recovery in olefin demand is below expectations, with the average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants at 82.88% [5] - The downstream demand for methanol remains weak, with various downstream products showing low operating rates, such as formaldehyde at 31.54% and dimethyl ether at 6.68% [5] - Overall, the domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a trend of being difficult to rise due to the combination of high supply and weak demand [7]
甲醇港口累库压力增大 后市易跌难涨
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang·2025-09-23 23:53