S&P Global Says Business Activity Growth Slows But Remains ‘Robust'

Core Insights - U.S. business activity continued to grow in September, but the growth rate slowed for the second consecutive month [1][2] - The Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index decreased from 54.6 in August to 53.6 in September, indicating a slowdown in both manufacturing and service sectors [2] - Despite the slowdown, the PMI reading remained elevated, and the third quarter saw the strongest average monthly expansion since Q4 2024 [2] Business Sentiment - Growth remained "robust" in September, although it decreased from the peak observed in July [3] - Companies' expectations for output in the upcoming year rose to a four-month high in September, although still below long-term averages [3] - Sentiment in the service sector reached its highest level since May, while manufacturing sentiment was the highest in three months [4] Economic Factors - Business sentiment improved partly due to anticipated benefits from lower interest rates, despite ongoing concerns over the political environment and tariffs [5] - Retail sales in August showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 0.6% from the previous month and a 5% increase from August 2024 [6] - The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported a rise in small business sentiment, with the Small Business Optimism Index increasing by 0.5 points to 100.8 [6] Labor Market Concerns - The number of business owners expecting higher sales increased by 6 points to 12%, although concerns about labor shortages persisted [7] - Despite improvements in overall business health, labor quality remained the top issue for small business owners [7]