黄金早参丨避险与降息预期共同驱动，金价突破3800美元，年内涨幅超43%

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to rise, reaching a historical high due to persistent interest rate cut expectations, frequent cryptocurrency hacking incidents, and risks of a U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 23, COMEX gold futures prices touched a record high of $3824.6 per ounce during intraday trading, closing at $3796.9 per ounce, marking a 0.58% increase [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 43%, achieving the best annual performance in history [1] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), rose by 1.19%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) increased by 1.27% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan expressed a controversial view that the benchmark interest rate is significantly above a reasonable level and should be aggressively lowered [1] - Milan suggested a potential interest rate cut space of nearly 2 percentage points, although this view has isolated him within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Current interest rate cut expectations are identified as the primary bullish driver for gold [1] - Moderate inflation combined with weak employment conditions clears the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Watch indicating expectations for three rate cuts within the year [1] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve may enhance Trump's influence, increasing the potential for future rate cuts and raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which could further weaken the dollar's credibility and provide greater elasticity for gold prices [1]