避险与降息预期共同驱动，金价突破3800美元，年内涨幅超43%

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to rise, reaching a historical high due to market expectations of interest rate cuts, frequent hacking incidents in the cryptocurrency sector, and risks of a U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 23, COMEX gold futures prices touched a record high of $3824.6 per ounce during intraday trading, closing at $3796.9 per ounce, marking a 0.58% increase [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 43%, achieving the best annual performance in history [1] - Gold ETFs, such as 华夏 (518850) and 黄金股ETF (159562), saw increases of 1.19% and 1.27% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan expressed a controversial view that the benchmark interest rate is significantly above a reasonable level and should be aggressively lowered [1] - Milan suggested that there is nearly a 2 percentage point space for rate cuts, although this perspective has isolated him within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Current expectations for interest rate cuts are identified as the primary bullish driver for gold [1] - Moderate inflation combined with weak employment conditions clears the way for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Watch indicating expectations for three rate cuts within the year [1] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve may enhance Trump's influence, potentially increasing the likelihood of future rate cuts and contributing to a narrative of declining dollar credibility, which could further support gold prices [1]