当前猪周期走到了哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The current stage of the pig cycle indicates a potential turning point for the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term, leading to a likely acceleration in capacity reduction [1][2][5] Industry Analysis - The pig price has been on a downward trend since August 2024, with current prices around 13 CNY/kg, yet leading companies remain profitable due to cost control measures [1] - The overall pig farming industry is approaching a breakeven point, with major players reducing costs below 12 CNY/kg, indicating that many farms are now operating at a loss [1][2] - The number of breeding sows has been increasing, suggesting ongoing supply pressure, which is likely to keep pig prices under pressure in the short term [1][2] - The industry is entering a phase of active capacity reduction, driven by both voluntary and involuntary factors, including policy enforcement and market conditions [2][5] Policy Impact - Recent policy measures are being implemented to control production capacity, with major companies expected to reduce output by 1 million pigs by the end of the year [2][6] - The industry is moving towards comprehensive capacity management, with penalties for non-compliance including the cessation of subsidies and credit [2][6] Market Dynamics - The pig farming sector is experiencing consolidation, with large-scale farms now accounting for 70% of the market share, as smaller players exit due to high costs and regulatory challenges [6] - The focus of large enterprises is shifting from expansion to cost reduction and efficiency improvement, indicating a more rational and gradual process of capacity reduction [6] Investment Opportunities - The livestock ETF is highlighted as a preferred investment tool, tracking the livestock index and covering various segments of the industry, with a significant portion of its assets in leading pig farming companies [7]