新棉将迎来集中上市 11月份前棉花价格或震荡下跌

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to a combination of weak demand during the traditional peak season and expectations of abundant new cotton supply in the upcoming year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the average domestic cotton spot price was 14,601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 316 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous month [1]. - The price decline is attributed to the approaching new cotton harvest and the anticipated increase in production, alongside a lack of strong demand from the textile sector [1][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the cotton market is shifting from tight to loose, with new cotton harvests expected to increase supply significantly [2]. - In 2025, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is projected to increase by 8.68%, with total production potentially reaching 7.1 million tons, an increase of approximately 11.29% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Cost and Processing Insights - The processing margins for Xinjiang cotton have been under pressure, leading to a decrease in risk appetite among processors, with seed cotton prices currently at 6.2 yuan/kg [2]. - The estimated cost of cotton lint is around 14,324 yuan/ton, which is lower than the current market price, indicating potential challenges for processors if prices continue to fall [2][4]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand Characteristics - The cotton demand typically exhibits seasonal characteristics, with weaker demand observed in July and August, leading to increased inventory levels among cotton spinning enterprises [5]. - Although there was a slight improvement in demand in September due to the onset of autumn and winter orders, the overall increase in orders remains modest, resulting in cautious purchasing behavior from textile manufacturers [5].