焦炭：焦炭2轮提降落地 部分焦企开始提涨 期货提前走反弹预期

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a divergence between spot prices and futures, with some coking enterprises starting to raise prices, while the overall market remains cautious due to recent price reductions by steel mills [6] Supply - As of September 18, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 667,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.1 tons, while the average daily production from 247 steel mills was 466,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.1 tons, leading to a total production of 1,134,000 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week [3] Demand - As of September 18, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4102 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47 tons; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.98%, up by 0.15%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.35%, an increase of 0.18%; and the profit margin for steel mills was 58.87%, down by 1.30% [4] Inventory - As of September 18, the total inventory of coking coal was 9.719 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 124,000 tons. Among this, the inventory at independent coking enterprises was 664,000 tons, down by 14,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.447 million tons, up by 114,000 tons week-on-week, and port inventory was 2.608 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week-on-week [5] Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was -17 yuan; with Shanxi's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of -12 yuan, Shandong's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of 34 yuan, Inner Mongolia's second-grade coking coal averaging a loss of 70 yuan, and Hebei's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of 13 yuan [2] Market Outlook - The market anticipates a gradual rebound in coking coal prices due to improved profitability in coking enterprises and the resumption of production and logistics. The steel industry is expected to maintain stable growth, with a focus on controlling total production and reducing pollution emissions. The upcoming peak season in September and October may provide further support for raw material prices [6]